What Went Down In The Alabama Senate Election

Perry County is the first Black Belt county entirely reporting. Jones won there 3,138 to 821. The bad news for Jones is that he won it by 58 percent, and I estimated that he needed to win it by 64 percent. But the good news for Jones is that that’s a pretty good turnout. Perry saw at about 76 percent as much turnout as it did in 2016, whereas Houston County (Moore’s base) was only at 58 percent of 2016 turnout.

Following up on that Nate Cohn tweet we posted below: I want to point out that Fayette County is all in. Moore won it by 50 points — well ahead of his benchmark there. Here’s the twist, though: There were less than 5,000 votes cast there. In 2014, there were nearly 7,000 votes cast there. In other words, turnout is way down from 2014 in a heavy pro-Moore area.