What Went Down At The ABC Republican Debate

I’m a bit more equivocal. In the long run, Trump has to prove that he doesn’t have a low ceiling on his support. Getting 30 percent would be better than the 24 percent he got in Iowa, but it’s still in Pat Buchanan range. (In 1996, Buchanan got 23 percent in Iowa, then won New Hampshire with 26 percent of the vote.) The important way it would be helpful for Trump is that a strong showing for Kasich and Bush could keep them in the race longer and prevent party elites from consolidating around Marco Rubio.

I think that does make sense, Micah. Take a look at the latest poll from the University of New Hampshire: Who is the candidate that leads among those definitely decided? It’s Donald Trump with 40 percent. No one else is above 14 percent. Trump’s actually trailing among those who haven’t totally made up their mind. That is, the vote that is still up for grabs tends not to be a Trump vote. The leader of the not-totally-decided vote? It was Marco Rubio.

I’d simplify that to say that Cruz and Rubio not having great nights would be good for Trump. Rubio’s clearly not having his finest hour. Cruz hasn’t been too memorable. (My theory about Rubio right now is that he’s switched to general-election debate mode: He’d go to a mosque — theoretically — he’s worked in a bipartisan way.)