What Went Down At The ABC Republican Debate

There’s some talk that Bush and Kasich are having good nights, which may end up being good news for Trump because he could win New Hampshire with say 30 percent … does that make sense?

The absence of military veterans on the Republican stage tonight, with none remaining in the Democratic race, is quite a sea change. Between 1948 and 2008, at least one veteran was among the major-party nominees in every single election. (Although we should note that low-polling GOP candidate Jim Gilmore is a veteran, as was Democrat Jim Webb, who has since dropped his presidential bid.)

One thing to keep in mind: there are just three more full days of campaigning remaining in New Hampshire, but that’s still plenty of time for the results to change substantially from where the polls have them right now. In the past, for example, there’s been a huge last-minute surge for Gary Hart (1984), a significant rebound for Howard Dean (in 2004, although it was not enough for him to win New Hampshire) and a major upset in 2008, when Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama despite trailing him in all the final polls.