What Went Down At The ABC Republican Debate

The candidates defined conservatism tonight in terms of free enterprise, opportunity, and limited government; maybe that philosophy degree is coming in handy after all. Nativism and executive-branch strength aren’t part of this classical definition. But they’ve been a big part of the political debate within, and outside, the Republican Party, for a while now, and especially in this race. The first answer of the night, from Trump, was about illegal immigrants and Muslims. Is that conservatism? Paul Ryan came out and said no, after one of Trump’s statements. But it clearly attracts support on the American right. It hasn’t been front and center tonight, but in previous debates, presidential power has been a question. It’s hard to reconcile a strong, decisive and expansive presidency with the principle of limited government. Yet, conservatives have done exactly this for decades, in a way that’s often been politically effective. Historically, conservatism has been associated with isolationism – but this has changed, with conservative foreign policy positions being closer to hawkishness and president-led interventions. Neither building a wall nor carpet-bombing enemies fits neatly with William F. Buckley’s vision of “standing athwart history yelling STOP.” Can the candidates make those connections, or do they have to admit they also hold other ideologies? No discussion of conservatism can just be about making more millionaires or about the promise of free enterprise. An honest answer requires confronting those two difficult questions.

According to Betfair, Rubio’s chances of winning the Republican nomination have declined to about 52 percent from 55 percent before the debate began. That seems reasonable enough. I thought he was really, really bad in the first half-hour of the debate. However, (i) it’s not that easy to judge how people at home are seeing things and (ii) the other frontrunners, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, haven’t had a very good night either.

Nate, you’ve been very bullish on Rubio’s chances since early 2015. How bad is tonight?