For some reason, you’re reading this live blog on a Saturday night. We’re sorry for you.
Just kidding! There’s actually still some drama left in the Democratic primary race.
Yes, Hillary Clinton is likely to be the nominee. Still, as I wrote yesterday, she can’t turn her attention to the general election yet. She’s in danger of losing one, or both, of the first two contests of the primary season.
Clinton’s 17 percentage-point lead in Iowa isn’t as safe as it looks given how predictive polls have been historically at this point in the campaign:
And she’s basically tied with Bernie Sanders in the New Hampshire primary:
The outcome in New Hampshire will depend a lot on Iowa. Even if she doesn’t lose Iowa, expectations are currently so high for Clinton that winning the caucus by a smaller than expected margin could hurt her in New Hampshire.
The last thing Clinton wants is to have to turn and repair her left flank after losing one or both of the first two contests. We’ll see if tonight’s debate raises or lowers the chance she’ll need to do that.
Micah Cohen
Welcome!
The race for the Democratic presidential nomination had been sleepy, or at least steady, for weeks. Hillary Clinton was the clear frontrunner. Bernie Sanders had a big following of passionate supporters, but could have made the race very interesting in Iowa and New Hampshire.
And that was that.
And then on Friday, just in time to add some drama to the third Democratic debate tonight, we got the political version of “Sneakers“: The Democratic National Committee accused the Sanders campaign of stealing Clinton’s data, and the Sanders team said the DNC was “attempting to undermine” its campaign. Everyone reached a semi-truce this morning, but we can expect the episode to come up on stage tonight.
What will Clinton say? Will she take a soft line, worried about alienating Sanders supporters? Most #FeelTheBerners say they’d be OK if Clinton won the nomination, but what would happen if they felt like their candidate didn’t get a fair shake? This debate, like the previous two, is being held on a Saturday night, after all — a time slot many Sanders backers think the DNC purposely chose to limit viewership and thereby help Clinton.
Stick with us to find out. Our politics team will be live blogging and live streaming. You can watch the debate, hosted by our corporate cousins, ABC News, on this very live blog. And send us your questions in a comment or via Twitter @FiveThirtyEight.
