I’m not a pollster or a statistician. But I do understand some of the hidden math of American life. We each have identities-as-stated. Then there’s how we express them in polls and public conversations — and what we say to ourselves. For example, many women who are religious conservatives have a different opinion of, and attachment to, issues of reproductive health than men in similar religions. To me, this is shaping up to be a secret(ive) election, meaning I suspect the Democrats will benefit from some people who cross lines because they disagree with the GOP candidates who are going far-right on immigration and reproductive issues; but also some (smaller) measure of socially conservative Dem-leaning folks may reject candidate positions on issues like policing and gun regulation.
