ABC Democratic Debate: Live Coverage

I’m not a pollster or a statistician. But I do understand some of the hidden math of American life. We each have identities-as-stated. Then there’s how we express them in polls and public conversations — and what we say to ourselves. For example, many women who are religious conservatives have a different opinion of, and attachment to, issues of reproductive health than men in similar religions. To me, this is shaping up to be a secret(ive) election, meaning I suspect the Democrats will benefit from some people who cross lines because they disagree with the GOP candidates who are going far-right on immigration and reproductive issues; but also some (smaller) measure of socially conservative Dem-leaning folks may reject candidate positions on issues like policing and gun regulation.

I think the fact that the Democrats aren’t tearing each other apart is good news for Democrats. I think the longer the Republican race goes on with Donald Trump leading, the further right the Republicans will be on the issues, and that is bad for the eventual GOP nominee. I still think the Republicans are slightly favored in the general because I don’t think Trump will be the nominee. Why do I think that? Obama’s approval rating is still only about 45 percent, and Republicans are leading on the generic ballot.

So, suffice it to say Democrats have had a considerably more congenial nomination process than Republicans so far. How much does this matter for the general election? Based on what you know now, what chance would you give the Democratic nominee of winning the general election?