I guess I have quite a few, disjointed final thoughts.
- First, the obvious: The Dobbs decision will go down in history as a midterm-altering event, alongside the war on terror in 2002 and the Clinton impeachment in 1998.
- This election showed why you should rely on polls (which pointed to this close outcome) over vibes (which predicted a Republican landslide).
- Relatedly, this election proved what we have been saying for years: Just because the polls had a Republican bias in 2016 and 2020 doesn’t mean they will have a Republican bias going forward. The polls were quite good this year, especially gold-standard nonpartisan polls.
- I’m not quite sure how to characterize the likely outcome in the House (should Republicans be happy or sad?), but I do know that Democrats had an unambiguously good election on the state level (flipping multiple state legislatures) and that should get more attention.
- When the House is as close as it looks like it will be, you can credibly claim that literally anything cost Democrats the House. Redistricting. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s weak coattails. The DCCC’s decision to triage certain seats. It’s choose your own adventure.