In Arizona, we’ve mostly been waiting on Maricopa County (Phoenix) reports because it’ll likely make up around 60 percent of the final statewide vote in Arizona. But Pima County, which provides roughly 15 percent of the statewide vote, is bluer and also makes up about three-quarters of the very competitive 6th District. Well, Pima reported almost 20,000 newly tabulated votes just a few minutes ago and, perhaps unsurprisingly, those votes helped Democrats. In the governor’s race, the batch went about 64 percent to 36 percent for Hobbs over Lake, helping her overall statewide advantage tick up slightly: Hobbs now leads 50.9 percent to 49.1 percent, with 85 percent of the expected vote reporting.
In the 6th District race, meanwhile, Republican Juan Ciscomani still leads Democrat Kirsten Engel, but Engel won the batch of about 12,000 votes that were in the district 56 percent to 44 percent, and she now trails Ciscomani by only 0.5 percentage points, 50.2 percent to 49.7 percent, with 91 percent of the expected vote reporting. Should Engel catch Ciscomani and defeat him, it would rank as one of the biggest upsets according to our forecast, as Ciscomani had a 93-in-100 chance of winning.