FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

According to election officials in Maricopa County, Arizona, the crucial county will report its next vote update at 8 p.m. local time (10 p.m. Eastern). If that’s your idea of a hot Friday night, check back with us then. If, on the other hand, you have a life, here’s a roundup of things as they stand on Friday afternoon:

Senate

  • In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 52 percent to 46 percent (a margin of 115,073 votes). As we wrote earlier, this race looks very good for Democrats.
  • In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent (a margin of 8,988 votes). Cortez Masto should take the lead here as more mail ballots are counted. If Democrats win both Arizona and Nevada, they will retain control of the Senate regardless of what happens in Georgia’s Dec. 6 runoff.
  • In Alaska, Tshibaka has 44 percent of first-place votes and Murkowski has 43 percent. We’re expecting vote updates on Nov. 15 and Nov. 18, and then ranked-choice tabulations will determine the winner on Nov. 23.

House

ABC News estimates that Republicans will win at least 211 seats and Democrats will win at least 204. There are 22 districts that could still go either way:

Several House races are still up in the air

Districts where ABC News has not yet reported a projected winner, as of 5:38 p.m. Eastern

Race Democrat Republican Percent reporting Vote margin Vote share margin
AK-1 Peltola i Palin 72% 44,406 D+20.7
AZ-1 Hodge Schweikert i 80 4,577 D+1.6
AZ-6 Engel Ciscomani 82 5,541 R+2.0
CA-3 Jones Kiley 45 9,851 R+6.5
CA-6 Bera i Hamilton 26 7,509 D+11.6
CA-9 Harder i Patti 36 9,918 D+12.5
CA-13 Gray Duarte 44 267 R+0.4
CA-21 Costa i Maher 49 7,463 D+9.1
CA-22 Salas Valadao i 32 3,870 R+8.4
CA-26 Brownley i Jacobs 54 12,782 D+8.5
CA-27 Smith Garcia i 49 16,151 R+12.8
CA-41 Rollins Calvert i 43 1,285 R+1.1
CA-45 Chen Steel i 55 13,269 R+9.1
CA-47 Porter i Baugh 63 2,970 D+1.6
CA-49 Levin i Maryott 64 6,652 D+3.4
CO-3 Frisch Boebert i 99 1,122 R+0.3
ME-2 Golden i Poliquin 88 15,013 D+5.4
NV-3 Lee i Becker 90 4,646 D+2.0
NY-22 Conole Williams 94 3,925 R+1.5
OR-5 McLeod-Skinner Chavez-DeRemer 86 6,792 R+2.3
OR-6 Salinas Erickson 80 4,058 D+1.7
WA-3 Perez Kent 84 5,117 D+1.9

i Incumbent.

Does not include races where both candidates are from the same party.

Source: ABC News

Governor

  • In Arizona, Hobbs leads Lake 51 percent to 49 percent (26,966 votes). The outcome here is still uncertain.
  • In Nevada, Lombardo leads Sisolak 50 percent to 47 percent (28,543 votes). Sisolak has an uphill climb here.
  • In Oregon, Kotek leads Drazan 47 percent to 43 percent. Other media outlets have declared Kotek the winner, but ABC News is not yet reporting a projection.
  • In Alaska, Dunleavy has 52 percent of first-place votes, Gara has 23 percent, Walker has 20 percent and Pierce has 5 percent.

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