Yep, Geoffrey, those would be two of the most shocking upsets in the history of our forecast if they come true. Boebert had a 97-in-100 chance of winning, and Kent had a 98-in-100 chance. But these are both races where we got precious little polling, so our forecast was mostly based on the “fundamentals” — which relies heavily on those partisan lean stats you mentioned. But candidate quality seems to have made a big difference here — as it did in many Senate and gubernatorial races — since Boebert and Kent are particularly extreme.
