FiveThirtyEight
Kaleigh Rogers

The fact that we saw a similar upset in Ohio’s 1st District makes me think there is something statewide happening, too, Amelia. Though Tim Ryan — who left the 13th District open when he decided to run for Senate — lost his race to J.D. Vance, having a big name in a major race at the top of the ticket may have had some trickle-down effect for Democrats in these races.


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