FiveThirtyEight
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

There were a bunch of upsets in New York House races that I am FASCINATED by. Republicans basically swept Long Island, following up on a strong performance in local elections there last year. And they also won some competitive districts upstate — including, of course, Republican Mike Lawler’s victory over incumbent Democrat and DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney in New York’s 17th District.

There’s lots to unpack here — why Republicans won, why Democrats lost and what this means for control of the House. One thing I find interesting is that the winners are a real mix of hard-right and moderate Republicans. On the one hand, you have Republican George Santos, who ran for the seat on a heavily pro-Trump platform in 2020 and lost then, but this year, after the seat’s incumbent left to unsuccessfully primary Gov. Kathy Hochul, Santos won. And on the other hand, you have Lawler, who has categorically rejected the idea that the 2020 election was stolen.


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