Well, it looks like Democrats managed to hold onto at least two of the three border-area congressional seats we were keeping a close eye on. In the 28th District, ABC News projects that Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar won his reelection bid against Republican Cassy Garcia, 57 percent to 43 percent (with roughly 77 percent of the expected vote in). Meanwhile, in the 34th District, it looks like Democrat Vicente Gonzalez will unseat Republican Mayra Flores, who briefly held the seat after winning a special election over the summer.
To be clear, these were arguably the easiest seats for Democrats to hang onto in this region. In the 28th District, not only did Cuellar out-raise Garcia, but our forecast gave the incumbent a 76-in-100 chance of winning. Moreover, Cuellar’s anti-abortion, pro-gun rights views and his tough-on-the-border posture fits well with his culturally conservative seat, as made clear by how he sailed to reelection in 2020 — outperforming President Biden by 15 points. The 34th District, meanwhile, was expected to be more of a toss-up, but Gonzalez was able to pull ahead of Flores: 53 percent to 44 percent (with 85 percent of the expected vote in.) Now, we just await results in Texas’s 15th District.