FiveThirtyEight
Kaleigh Rogers

With 79 percent of the expected vote reporting in Colorado’s 3rd District, incumbent Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert is still behind Democrat challenger Adam Frisch, but it is nail-bitingly close. Frisch has 52 percent while Boebert has 48 percent — fewer than 10,000 votes separate them. If Frisch wins, it will meet our definition for an upset, as Boebert had 97-in-100 odds of winning according to our final Deluxe forecast.


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