With 52 percent of the expected vote reporting in Georgia, the Senate race has narrowed to Warnock 50 percent, Walker 48 percent. And the county-level benchmarks are sending mixed messages. Warnock is beating his benchmarks in some key counties, like Fulton and Gwinnett. But if you click “show more rows,” you can see that Walker is outperforming his benchmarks in several small, rural counties. Basically, this one still looks like it will be very close — possibly runoff territory.
Georgia Senate results vs. benchmarks
How the parties are performing in each county or county equivalent compared with benchmarks based on the vote margin in the 2020 presidential election, as of 9:04 p.m. Eastern
| Locality | Statewide vote share | Benchmark vote margin | Exp. vote | Vote Margin | Shift from Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulton | 10.5% | D+46.1 | 66% | D+51.8 | D+5.7 |
| Gwinnett | 8.3 | D+18.0 | 42 | D+33.7 | D+15.7 |
| Cobb | 7.9 | D+14.1 | 58 | D+19.9 | D+5.8 |
| DeKalb | 7.4 | D+67.1 | 7 | D+76.5 | D+9.4 |
| Cherokee | 2.9 | R+39.5 | 76 | R+34.9 | D+4.6 |
| Chatham | 2.7 | D+18.5 | 49 | D+33.1 | D+14.6 |
| Forsyth | 2.6 | R+33.4 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Henry | 2.5 | D+20.2 | 73 | D+34.9 | D+14.7 |
| Clayton | 2.2 | D+70.6 | 71 | D+77.1 | D+6.4 |
| Hall | 1.8 | R+43.5 | 80 | R+43.1 | D+0.4 |
| Richmond | 1.7 | D+36.9 | 63 | D+48.0 | D+11.1 |
| Paulding | 1.7 | R+29.3 | 95 | R+23.9 | D+5.4 |
| Columbia | 1.6 | R+26.0 | 3 | R+41.2 | R+15.2 |
| Muscogee | 1.6 | D+23.8 | 59 | D+38.0 | D+14.3 |
| Coweta | 1.5 | R+35.8 | 55 | R+29.7 | D+6.0 |
| Houston | 1.5 | R+12.7 | 74 | R+7.9 | D+4.8 |
| Fayette | 1.4 | R+7.0 | 66 | D+3.3 | D+10.4 |
| Bibb | 1.4 | D+23.6 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Douglas | 1.4 | D+24.9 | 75 | D+33.5 | D+8.6 |
| Carroll | 1.1 | R+39.2 | 71 | R+33.6 | D+5.6 |
| Newton | 1.1 | D+10.7 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Clarke | 1.0 | D+41.8 | 57 | D+49.3 | D+7.5 |
| Walton | 1.0 | R+49.5 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Bartow | 1.0 | R+50.9 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Lowndes | 0.9 | R+12.3 | 93 | R+18.5 | R+6.2 |
| Rockdale | 0.9 | D+40.5 | 88 | D+48.0 | D+7.4 |
| Glynn | 0.8 | R+23.4 | 95 | R+26.9 | R+3.5 |
| Floyd | 0.8 | R+41.3 | 94 | R+39.7 | D+1.6 |
| Barrow | 0.8 | R+43.3 | 83 | R+37.7 | D+5.6 |
| Jackson | 0.8 | R+58.2 | 73 | R+53.9 | D+4.3 |
| Whitfield | 0.7 | R+40.9 | 83 | R+43.6 | R+2.7 |
| Dougherty | 0.7 | D+39.8 | 5 | D+56.0 | D+16.2 |
| Catoosa | 0.7 | R+56.1 | 65 | R+51.0 | D+5.1 |
| Effingham | 0.6 | R+49.8 | 75 | R+44.2 | D+5.6 |
| Spalding | 0.6 | R+21.0 | 12 | D+15.0 | D+36.0 |
| Bulloch | 0.6 | R+24.0 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Troup | 0.6 | R+22.1 | 69 | R+17.9 | D+4.2 |
| Walker | 0.6 | R+59.5 | 91 | R+57.8 | D+1.7 |
| Oconee | 0.5 | R+33.7 | 95 | R+34.5 | R+0.8 |
| Gordon | 0.5 | R+62.7 | 95 | R+62.2 | D+0.5 |
| Camden | 0.5 | R+31.0 | 78 | R+28.7 | D+2.3 |
| Laurens | 0.5 | R+28.5 | 76 | R+31.7 | R+3.3 |
| Thomas | 0.4 | R+19.7 | 95 | R+23.6 | R+3.8 |
| Liberty | 0.4 | D+23.8 | 95 | D+26.4 | D+2.6 |
| Bryan | 0.4 | R+35.4 | 74 | R+28.3 | D+7.1 |
| Habersham | 0.4 | R+64.2 | 95 | R+63.0 | D+1.2 |
| Harris | 0.4 | R+44.5 | 95 | R+47.2 | R+2.7 |
| Baldwin | 0.4 | D+1.1 | 92 | R+0.6 | R+1.7 |
| Polk | 0.3 | R+57.3 | 34 | R+52.9 | D+4.4 |
| Pickens | 0.3 | R+66.0 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Lee | 0.3 | R+44.8 | 95 | R+42.6 | D+2.2 |
| Gilmer | 0.3 | R+63.8 | 88 | R+61.9 | D+1.8 |
| Tift | 0.3 | R+33.8 | 91 | R+38.9 | R+5.1 |
| Colquitt | 0.3 | R+47.4 | 61 | R+48.5 | R+1.1 |
| Dawson | 0.3 | R+68.1 | 95 | R+64.4 | D+3.7 |
| Monroe | 0.3 | R+43.0 | 95 | R+43.4 | R+0.4 |
| Lumpkin | 0.3 | R+58.4 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Union | 0.3 | R+63.5 | 95 | R+60.4 | D+3.1 |
| Murray | 0.3 | R+69.4 | 72 | R+71.0 | R+1.6 |
| Coffee | 0.3 | R+40.1 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Jones | 0.3 | R+34.1 | 64 | R+35.2 | R+1.1 |
| Madison | 0.3 | R+53.2 | 59 | R+54.7 | R+1.5 |
| Fannin | 0.3 | R+64.9 | 58 | R+51.4 | D+13.5 |
| White | 0.3 | R+66.4 | 76 | R+61.5 | D+4.9 |
| Haralson | 0.3 | R+74.2 | 86 | R+71.4 | D+2.8 |
| Ware | 0.3 | R+40.7 | 68 | R+36.3 | D+4.3 |
| Upson | 0.3 | R+34.4 | 92 | R+34.9 | R+0.6 |
| Wayne | 0.3 | R+57.3 | 95 | R+58.3 | R+1.0 |
| Hart | 0.3 | R+49.8 | 85 | R+52.9 | R+3.1 |
| Peach | 0.3 | R+4.9 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Sumter | 0.2 | D+4.6 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Stephens | 0.2 | R+59.0 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Putnam | 0.2 | R+41.1 | 86 | R+36.5 | D+4.6 |
| Butts | 0.2 | R+43.8 | 75 | R+43.5 | D+0.3 |
| Morgan | 0.2 | R+41.9 | 60 | R+41.1 | D+0.8 |
| Decatur | 0.2 | R+17.2 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Greene | 0.2 | R+26.7 | 95 | R+30.9 | R+4.2 |
| Meriwether | 0.2 | R+20.8 | 53 | R+18.3 | D+2.5 |
| Toombs | 0.2 | R+45.5 | 92 | R+50.1 | R+4.7 |
| Franklin | 0.2 | R+69.7 | 48 | R+73.3 | R+3.6 |
| Burke | 0.2 | R+2.0 | 93 | R+6.9 | R+4.9 |
| Grady | 0.2 | R+32.1 | 86 | R+35.9 | R+3.8 |
| Pike | 0.2 | R+71.3 | 88 | R+69.6 | D+1.8 |
| McDuffie | 0.2 | R+19.4 | 91 | R+23.7 | R+4.3 |
| Chattooga | 0.2 | R+62.0 | 76 | R+54.4 | D+7.6 |
| Rabun | 0.2 | R+57.6 | 95 | R+53.3 | D+4.3 |
| Emanuel | 0.2 | R+38.8 | 87 | R+41.6 | R+2.8 |
| Washington | 0.2 | D+0.6 | 58 | D+1.0 | D+0.5 |
| Worth | 0.2 | R+48.0 | 42 | R+31.0 | D+17.0 |
| Elbert | 0.2 | R+36.7 | 59 | R+41.6 | R+4.9 |
| Lamar | 0.2 | R+41.3 | 87 | R+39.2 | D+2.0 |
| Pierce | 0.2 | R+75.4 | 95 | R+77.4 | R+2.0 |
| Mitchell | 0.2 | R+10.8 | 65 | R+6.9 | D+3.9 |
| Banks | 0.2 | R+78.2 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Appling | 0.2 | R+57.3 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Tattnall | 0.2 | R+49.0 | 59 | R+52.6 | R+3.6 |
| Oglethorpe | 0.2 | R+39.0 | 18 | R+29.7 | D+9.3 |
| Crisp | 0.2 | R+25.2 | 83 | R+28.0 | R+2.8 |
| Dodge | 0.2 | R+45.7 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Towns | 0.2 | R+60.8 | 99 | R+59.2 | D+1.6 |
| Berrien | 0.2 | R+66.7 | 92 | R+68.4 | R+1.6 |
| Brantley | 0.2 | R+81.5 | 95 | R+82.1 | R+0.6 |
| Jasper | 0.2 | R+53.3 | 84 | R+46.6 | D+6.7 |
| Jefferson | 0.2 | D+6.6 | 67 | D+10.2 | D+3.6 |
| Dade | 0.1 | R+64.8 | 84 | R+61.0 | D+3.8 |
| Brooks | 0.1 | R+20.9 | 93 | R+27.7 | R+6.8 |
| Cook | 0.1 | R+40.6 | 22 | R+31.6 | D+9.0 |
| McIntosh | 0.1 | R+21.2 | 58 | R+23.2 | R+2.0 |
| Screven | 0.1 | R+19.2 | 86 | R+25.7 | R+6.5 |
| Ben Hill | 0.1 | R+26.4 | 88 | R+28.9 | R+2.5 |
| Crawford | 0.1 | R+46.3 | 5 | D+13.1 | D+59.5 |
| Jeff Davis | 0.1 | R+63.7 | 90 | R+66.2 | R+2.5 |
| Bleckley | 0.1 | R+53.1 | 95 | R+55.0 | R+1.9 |
| Long | 0.1 | R+26.6 | 59 | R+17.0 | D+9.6 |
| Heard | 0.1 | R+68.7 | 83 | R+65.1 | D+3.6 |
| Early | 0.1 | R+5.3 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Wilkes | 0.1 | R+13.4 | 91 | R+17.5 | R+4.1 |
| Wilkinson | 0.1 | R+12.6 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Bacon | 0.1 | R+72.9 | 93 | R+74.0 | R+1.1 |
| Lincoln | 0.1 | R+37.8 | 95 | R+44.5 | R+6.8 |
| Macon | 0.1 | D+22.8 | 60 | D+10.4 | R+12.4 |
| Charlton | 0.1 | R+50.9 | 52 | R+41.6 | D+9.3 |
| Candler | 0.1 | R+42.3 | 95 | R+45.1 | R+2.8 |
| Twiggs | 0.1 | R+7.6 | 89 | R+8.2 | R+0.7 |
| Terrell | 0.1 | D+8.2 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Telfair | 0.1 | R+31.1 | 52 | R+37.0 | R+5.9 |
| Evans | 0.1 | R+37.1 | 93 | R+40.4 | R+3.4 |
| Hancock | 0.1 | D+43.6 | 71 | D+44.4 | D+0.7 |
| Irwin | 0.1 | R+51.2 | 50 | R+53.7 | R+2.4 |
| Dooly | 0.1 | R+6.3 | 83 | R+9.9 | R+3.6 |
| Johnson | 0.1 | R+39.9 | 93 | R+47.9 | R+8.0 |
| Pulaski | 0.1 | R+39.1 | 83 | R+42.4 | R+3.4 |
| Montgomery | 0.1 | R+50.1 | 88 | R+52.9 | R+2.8 |
| Seminole | 0.1 | R+35.1 | 90 | R+43.8 | R+8.7 |
| Taylor | 0.1 | R+27.1 | 86 | R+32.9 | R+5.8 |
| Turner | 0.1 | R+25.0 | 89 | R+24.5 | D+0.5 |
| Marion | 0.1 | R+26.8 | 93 | R+25.8 | D+1.0 |
| Lanier | 0.1 | R+41.9 | 94 | R+43.3 | R+1.4 |
| Talbot | 0.1 | D+20.3 | 46 | D+30.6 | D+10.4 |
| Jenkins | 0.1 | R+26.1 | 92 | R+33.0 | R+6.9 |
| Wilcox | 0.1 | R+47.2 | 89 | R+49.9 | R+2.6 |
| Atkinson | 0.1 | R+47.0 | 57 | R+54.0 | R+7.0 |
| Treutlen | 0.1 | R+37.6 | 90 | R+41.4 | R+3.8 |
| Randolph | 0.1 | D+8.9 | 88 | D+8.2 | R+0.7 |
| Clinch | 0.1 | R+47.8 | 90 | R+56.6 | R+8.8 |
| Miller | 0.1 | R+46.7 | 89 | R+51.6 | R+4.8 |
| Warren | 0.1 | D+11.2 | 91 | D+5.1 | R+6.1 |
| Schley | 0.0 | R+59.1 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Wheeler | 0.0 | R+39.4 | 90 | R+40.3 | R+0.9 |
| Calhoun | 0.0 | D+15.2 | 38 | D+3.4 | R+11.9 |
| Stewart | 0.0 | D+18.9 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Chattahoochee | 0.0 | R+13.7 | 88 | R+8.4 | D+5.3 |
| Baker | 0.0 | R+16.0 | 92 | R+15.1 | D+0.9 |
| Glascock | 0.0 | R+79.9 | 96 | R+81.7 | R+1.8 |
| Clay | 0.0 | D+10.5 | 91 | D+4.0 | R+6.5 |
| Echols | 0.0 | R+75.8 | 89 | R+79.0 | R+3.2 |
| Webster | 0.0 | R+8.0 | 0 | R+0.0 | — |
| Quitman | 0.0 | R+9.9 | 92 | R+14.7 | R+4.8 |
| Taliaferro | 0.0 | D+21.4 | 72 | D+13.4 | R+8.0 |