In Pennsylvania, it’s very early. Fetterman leads Oz by an astonishing 81 percent to 17 percent margin, but that’s a function of having only 8 percent of the expected vote reporting, and almost all of that vote being mail and early votes, which lean heavily Democratic. This early Democratic edge is interesting, though, because Pennsylvania counties could start processing mail ballots received ahead of Election Day only today, unlike some other states where they allow processing to begin earlier. Because of that, there’s been an expectation that Republicans would lead early in Pennsylvania, and then Democrats would cut the margins as counties reported ballots cast early and by mail. That could still happen, but it may be more of a roller-coaster of surges by each party as different sets of ballots are reported, with early and mail votes leaning Democrats and Election Day votes leaning Republican.
