FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley
(R) Key Race Projected

ABC News is reporting that Republicans are projected to win two more seats in New York, which is turning into arguably the second-best state for the GOP in terms of House gains, after Florida. First, Republican Michael Lawler has just edged out Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in the 17th District, a noteworthy result given Maloney led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this cycle, making him responsible for directing party efforts to defend the party’s House majority. This is the first time a DCCC chair has lost a general election since 1980, too. Maloney’s defeat might offer a bit of schadenfreude to some of his Democratic compatriots, who expressed anger at his decision to run in the new 17th District rather than the new 18th District, which contained more of his old seat. Maloney’s move pushed first-term Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones to move into New York City to run in the new 10th District, where he lost his primary. Maloney likely made his choice because the new 17th is slightly bluer at its partisan baseline than the new 18th District, yet ironically Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan might hold the 18th, while Maloney lost.

And then to the north, Republican Marc Molinaro has narrowly bested Democrat Josh Riley to capture this open seat. Molinaro lost an August special election to Ryan to see out the current term for the expiring 19th District, but Molinaro has now made it to the next Congress, while Ryan’s future remains in doubt.


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