Many candidates who have refused to accept the results of the 2020 election — either saying it was stolen from Trump, or taking legal action to overturn the results — have been projected to win their races. A significant portion of these are incumbent members of Congress who voted not to certify some of the 2020 election results (147 Republicans voted this way). This includes Republicans such as Pennsylvania Rep. Scott Perry and Utah’s Rep. Burgess Owens, who not only voted against certifying election results but also said he “absolutely” believed Trump won the election. There are also a number of newcomers who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election and are projected to have won their races. Take Rich McCormick, who ABC News has projected to win the House seat for Georgia’s 6th District. McCormick ran and lost in 2020, and baselessly blamed his loss on voter fraud. But some election deniers have also been projected to lose their races, including in a few districts where Republicans ought to have performed well. Bo Hines, the Republican candidate for North Carolina’s 13th District, has said Biden is the president — but only after saying he believed the 2020 election was stolen. North Carolina’s 13th District has a partisan lean of R+3, according to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, and the open seat looked like a possible win for the GOP — Hines had 77-in-100 chance of winning in our final Deluxe forecast. But Hines is projected to lose to Democrat Wiley Nickel, a state senator.
But members of Congress have only so much influence over elections. Much more crucial were the 10 races where the Republican candidate for secretary of state denied or questioned the results of the 2020 election. That’s because the secretary of state is typically the chief election official for a state, charged with both administering elections and certifying results. Having a person in that position who subscribes to baseless conspiracy theories about election fraud could result in an election official who doesn’t honor the democratic results of future elections. So far, three of those 10 candidates — Wes Allen in Alabama, Monae Johnson in South Dakota and Chuck Gray in Wyoming — have been projected to win their races. Two races have yet to be called (in Nevada and Arizona). The rest have been projected to lose their races. As we’ve seen throughout the midterms, there’s not a clear trend here. A candidate’s position on the 2020 election hasn’t been a clear indicator of success or failure, and the other factors in a race often override this position on its own.