Republicans are now eight seats away from reaching the majority in the House. There are nine seats that FiveThirtyEight forecasted as “lean or likely” Republican that remain uncalled.
Democrats are currently ahead in at least two of those races (with the huge caveat that there are still a number of votes left to count, particularly on the West Coast). And of course there’s still a number of toss-up and Democrat-leaning races left to call. Here’s the current breakdown of these ‘likely Republican’ House seats:
The status of ‘likely Republican’ House races
Results in districts where the Republican candidate had between a 75 percent and 95 percent chance of winning, according to the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s final preelection forecast, as of 12:46 p.m. Eastern
| race | democrat | republican | Percent reporting | Vote Margin | ABC Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-6 | Engel | Ciscomani | 67% | R+1.1 | |
| CA-45 | Chen | Steel i | 50 | R+10.5 | |
| CO-8 | Caraveo | Kirkmeyer | 65 | D+2.0 | |
| FL-13 | Lynn | Paulina Luna | 95 | R+8.1 | ✔ R |
| FL-27 | Taddeo | Salazar i | 82 | R+14.6 | ✔ R |
| IA-1 | Bohannan | Miller-Meeks i | 88 | R+6.6 | ✔ R |
| IA-2 | Mathis | Hinson i | 92 | R+8.2 | ✔ R |
| MI-10 | Marlinga | James | 95 | R+0.5 | |
| MT-1 | Tranel | Zinke | 92 | R+3.6 | |
| NC-13 | Nickel | Hines | 99 | D+2.6 | ✔ D |
| NE-2 | Vargas | Bacon i | 98 | R+4.4 | ✔ R |
| NM-2 | Vasquez | Herrell i | 99 | D+0.5 | |
| NY-1 | Fleming | LaLota | 95 | R+11.3 | ✔ R |
| OH-1 | Landsman | Chabot i | 91 | D+4.9 | ✔ D |
| OH-13 | Sykes | Gilbert | 92 | D+5.2 | ✔ D |
| WI-3 | Pfaff | Van Orden | 94 | R+5.3 | ✔ R |