Hillary Scholten’s win in Michigan’s 3rd District is another example of Democrats performing really well in Michigan, but also of Trump-backed candidates underperforming. Here are our forecast odds for Michigan’s 3rd over time, from June 1 to the final preelection forecast:
That massive spike in Democrats’ odds to flip this seat happened on Aug. 3, when Republican Rep. Peter Meijer — who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 — narrowly lost the party primary to Trump-backed conservative John Gibbs (before that date, we ran the forecast guessing that Meijer would be the general election candidate). That primary result, which at the time was viewed as a boost for Trump, didn’t pay off for Michigan Republicans, who will now lose that seat to Democrats.