Nathaniel, I mentioned it before, but it’s worth noting again: Democrats seem to be leading across the board when it comes to toss-up races. In Wisconsin, our only governor toss-up, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers held on to his seat, and in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, John Fetterman beat Mehmet Oz.
And as it stands now, even if Democrats lose all the unprojected races, they will have still won most of the toss-up House races.
The status of ‘toss-up’ House races
Results in districts where both candidates had less than a 60 percent chance of winning, according to the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s final preelection forecast, as of 12:22 p.m. Eastern
| race | democrat | republican | Percent reporting | Vote Margin | ABC Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-1 | Peltola i | Palin | 71% | D+20.5 | |
| IA-3 | Axne i | Nunn | 91 | R+0.7 | |
| MI-3 | Scholten | Gibbs | 99 | D+12.9 | ✔ D |
| NV-1 | Titus i | Robertson | 84 | D+2.9 | |
| NY-19 | Riley | Molinaro | 99 | R+2.2 | |
| OR-5 | McLeod-Skinner | Chavez-DeRemer | 74 | R+3.7 | |
| PA-17 | Deluzio | Shaffer | 99 | D+6.4 | ✔ D |
| PA-7 | Wild i | Scheller | 96 | D+1.6 | ✔ D |
| PA-8 | Cartwright i | Bognet | 96 | D+2.3 | ✔ D |
| RI-2 | Magaziner | Fung | 92 | D+3.3 | ✔ D |
| TX-15 | Vallejo | De La Cruz-Hernandez | 89 | R+8.5 | ✔ R |
| TX-34 | Gonzalez i | Flores i | 87 | D+8.5 | ✔ D |
| VA-2 | Luria i | Kiggans | 99 | R+4.1 | ✔ R |