FiveThirtyEight
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

There are a handful of races in New York that both parties have been vying for — let’s check in on them. Overall, it doesn’t look like the Democratic wipeout that some had predicted for New York, although there are some promising signs for Republicans in a couple races.

In New York’s 3rd District, we have 60 percent of the vote reporting, and it’s neck-and-neck between Republican George Santos and Democrat Robert Zimmerman, with Santos in the lead. The district’s current representative, Democrat Tom Suozzi, gave up his seat to run against Kathy Hochul in the gubernatorial primary. (He lost.) Santos is making a second run for this seat after losing to Suozzi in 2020.

In the 4th District, Democrat Lauren Gillen has a slim lead over Republican Anthony D’Esposito with 41 percent of the vote reporting. This is another open seat vacated by a retiring Democrat. Gillen is a local town supervisor and has pitched herself as a moderate option. D’Esposito is a town councilman.

The 18th District is another one to watch. In August, Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro for the 19th district, where he’s serving out the rest of Rep. Antonio Delgado’s term. (Delgado resigned to serve as New York’s lieutenant governor.) Ryan’s 2-percentage-point win was one of several unexpectedly good special election results for Democrats. If he wins, he’ll transition to being the representative for the 18th. His opponent is 32-year-old Colin Schmitt, who currently serves in the New York State Assembly. Right now, with 65 percent of the vote reporting, Ryan is leading with 55 percent.

Then there’s the 19th District, another close race for an open seat. Democrat Josh Riley and Republican Marc Molinaro have both played up their moderate credentials, and after Molinaro lost in the special election this summer, outside groups have spent millions trying to paint each candidate as an extremist. With 31 percent of the vote reporting, Riley is in the lead with 55 percent.

Finally, there’s the 22nd District. This central New York district changed a lot during redistricting in 2021, and there isn’t an incumbent in the race – one of the representatives who could have laid claim to the district is retiring, and the other is running on friendlier turf. Democrat Francis Conole and Republican Brandon Williams are both military veterans. Conole has declined to support Biden running for reelection in 2024 and promised to govern in a bipartisan mold. Right now, only 13 percent of the vote is in, and Williams is ahead with 54 percent of the vote.


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