FiveThirtyEight
Paroma Soni

Speaking of candidates embracing the claim that the 2020 election was fraudulent, we previously reported that 60 percent of Americans would have an election denier on their ballot today. As of now, seven gubernatorial and secretary of state candidates who have denied or raised questions about the 2020 election have won their races, while three have lost. That tracks with our preelection forecast, and we’ll keep updating them here.

How election deniers are doing tonight

Gubernatorial and secretary of state candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election and their results, as of 11:10 p.m. Eastern

CANDIDATE OFFICE Position on 2020 election % REPORTING MARGIN STATUS
Mike Dunleavy AK Gov. ❓ Raised doubts 0%
Kay Ivey AL Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 60 +36.4 ✓ Won
Wes Allen AL SoS ❓ Raised doubts 55 +35.0
Sarah Huckabee Sanders AR Gov. ❓ Raised doubts 60 +28.4 ✓ Won
Kari Lake AZ Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 51 -13.8
Mark Finchem AZ SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 50 -18.6
Dominic Rapini CT SoS ❓ Raised doubts 19 -1.2
Brad Little ID Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 ✓ Won
Darren Bailey IL Gov. ❓ Raised doubts 69 -12.4 ✗ Lost
Derek Schmidt KS Gov. ❓ Raised doubts 80 -4.0
Geoff Diehl MA Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 23 -24.1 ✗ Lost
Dan Cox MD Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 -22.7 ✗ Lost
Paul R. LePage ME Gov. ❓ Raised doubts 45 -16.9
Kristina Karamo MI SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 30 -10.8
Tudor M. Dixon MI Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 34 -6.0
Kim Crockett MN SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 40 -21.1
Audrey Trujillo NM SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 67 -15.4
Joe Lombardo NV Gov. ❓ Raised doubts 0
Jim Marchant NV SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0
Douglas V. Mastriano PA Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 73 -10.9 ✗ Lost
Henry McMaster SC Gov. ❓ Raised doubts 77 +15.9 ✓ Won
Kristi Noem SD Gov. ❓ Raised doubts 49 +28.9 ✓ Won
Monae Johnson SD SoS ❓ Raised doubts 47 +33.3 ✓ Won
Greg Abbott TX Gov. ❓ Raised doubts 71 +12.2 ✓ Won
H. Brooke Paige VT SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 72 -27.4
Tim Michels WI Gov. ❓ Raised doubts 64 -3.4

Candidates marked as having “denied legitimacy” of the 2020 election either explicitly said Donald Trump’s loss or the 2020 election itself was illegitimate or, if an elected official at the time, took legal measures to try to overturn the election. Candidates marked as “raised doubts” have questioned the fairness of the 2020 election but have not explicitly said the election or Trump’s loss was illegitimate.

Sources: News reports, campaigns, ABC News


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