FiveThirtyEight
Jacob Rubashkin

It’s worth taking a step back and considering the full scope of DeSantis’s victory in Florida tonight. He’s currently leading by 20 points, with 94 percent of the vote counted. That’s a hefty margin in a state that, up until two years ago, was the quintessential swing state. For context, the last three gubernatorial races in Florida were decided by 1 point, 1 point and 0.4 percentage points. DeSantis is even leading by double digits in traditionally Democratic Miami-Dade County, showing his support among the state’s Hispanic population. He even outpaced Rubio, South Florida’s very own. It’s a stunning victory for the potential 2024 presidential candidate and might convince him to throw his hat in the ring even if Trump runs again. And it is sure to embolden DeSantis’s backers in the GOP who are hungry for a non-Trump option.


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