Spanberger is one of the 45 2018 blue-wave House freshmen running tonight, and one of three hailing from Virginia alone. (She and Wexton in the state’s 10th District have won, while we’re still waiting on Luria in the 2nd.) Of the 45 total, our forecast showed that 15 2018 freshmen had at least a 99 percent chance of winning tonight, while Spanberger fell among the 10 of that cohort with the next best range of odds: between 80 percent and 99 percent. We’re still waiting on a sizable cohort of these 45 races to be called tonight, especially considering a handful are coming from the West Coast. Other candidates, like Pappas in New Hampshire’s 1st or Hayes in Connecticut’s 5th, are in states where polls have been closed for a while … but we continue to wait for projections.
