FiveThirtyEight
Ryan Best

We have a third House seat that flipped to Republicans: Tennessee’s 5th District.

Which House and Senate seats have changed hands so far

Races that ABC News has projected for the party that does not currently hold the seat, as of 10:41 p.m. Eastern

race incumbent party name party current lead
FL-13 D Anna Paulina Luna R R+8.6
FL-7 D Cory Mills R R+17.0
TN-5 D Andy Ogles R R+14.6

Source: ABC News

Similar to Florida, the story with this flip is also centered around redistricting. Tennessee’s new map broke up a Democratic stronghold district in Nashville (formerly D+15 partisan lean), pushing the boundaries of that district further southwest to include more rural, Republican-leaning counties. The net gain of one Republican-leaning seat from this new congressional map has already paid dividends for the GOP, which flipped another one of the five seats they need to win control of the chamber.


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