Using our benchmarks, we can see how Fetterman has been running ahead of where he needs to be in Pennsylvania’s Senate race. Now, there’s a mix of votes reported in different places, so this scatterplot will look different in an hour — more Election Day votes should help Oz, while more mail ballots would aid Fetterman. But a good sign for Fetterman is in Lackawanna County, home to Scranton, where Fetterman is leading by 16 points, with basically all votes reported. That’s about 9 points beyond the benchmark we think he needed to have there to win statewide, which was basically the same 8-point margin Biden had in 2020 in the county.
