FiveThirtyEight
Kaleigh Rogers

It’s still too early (and close) for ABC News’s Decision Desk to call, but we have a possible upset alert! Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, the conservative firebrand representing Colorado’s 3rd District who once vowed to carry her glock in Congress and has embraced Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen, is currently trailing in her reelection bid. With 71 percent of expected vote reporting, Boebert has 48 percent while her challenger, Democrat and former Aspen City Council Member Adam Frisch, leads with 52 percent. Our forecast gave Boebert a 97-in-100 chance of winning, so if Frisch can maintain his lead, it will be a surprising ouster.


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