FiveThirtyEight
Monica Potts

Polls are closing in Nevada, and preliminary exit polls, which might change as the night goes on, show that 38 percent called inflation the top issue in deciding their vote. Fifty-six percent of voters are dissatisfied or angry about the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, but only 26 percent call abortion the top issue for them in the election. The extremely close race between incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the first Latina in the Senate, and her Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, could determine the balance of power in the Senate. I reported on how these were the two big issues in the race earlier this week.

The state’s gubernatorial race between Republican Joe Lombardo and incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak is also close. Nevada is unusually reliant on the hospitality industry and was also hit hard by COVID-19 shutdowns, so it’s possible that voters blame Sisolak for his handling of the pandemic.

Republican secretary of state candidate Jim Marchant was also a vocal election denier, so whether he wins that race could have implications for how future elections in the state are conducted.

Biden won the state by fewer than 34,000 votes in 2020, and all of these races may come down to turnout. Another important note about Nevada: Voters are registered automatically, and this year registered voters were sent mail-in ballots automatically, a pandemic-era change that has stayed. Mail-in ballots can be counted until Saturday, so we may not get results for some time.


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