Will Pennsylvania Be The Rare Bellwether That Also Bucks Trends?
The 2014 elections were the most recent midterms to take place under a Democratic president. And the Democrats got “shellacked” (their word), dropping nine Senate seats. But amidst a bleak electoral result, they could boast one consolation prize: They flipped the Pennsylvania governor’s seat, with Democrat Tom Wolf beating Republican incumbent Gov. Tom Corbett handily.
Eight years later, Wolf isn’t seeking reelection due to term limits. But while Pennsylvania’s marquee Senate race between Republican Mehmet Oz and Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman slightly favors the Republican, the governor’s race has a clear favorite in Josh Shapiro, the state’s Democratic attorney general. If the Republicans win or even come close in the state’s governor’s race, the Democrats are likely in for another shellacking nationwide.
Pennsylvania is a bellwether state nationally, and for good reason. It has backed the winner of the last four presidential elections, with Biden winning the state by just over 1 percentage point in 2020 after former President Donald Trump took the state by less than that in 2016. So if the Republicans have even a modest turnout advantage in 2022, it’s possible that the electorate this year will have more Trump supporters than Biden supporters.
So why does Shapiro appear on track to buck the national trend, which appears more favorable to Republicans?
There are a couple reasons. First, as attorney general, Shapiro has held statewide office since his 2016 election. In his 2020 reelection bid, he actually won slightly more votes statewide than Biden did. He’s also a prodigious fundraiser, and his spending has broken state records.
Another big reason is Shapiro’s Republican opponent, state Senator Doug Mastriano. An Army veteran and outspoken Christian nationalist, Mastriano represented South Central Pennsylvania and attracted attention by opposing COVID-19 shutdowns and working to organize an alternate slate of Pennsylvania electors for the 2020 election. Mastriano is staunchly anti-abortion in a state where a majority of citizens support legal abortion. He has said he wouldn’t have certified the 2020 election, and if elected, he would have the authority to appoint the state’s top election official. In short, his political profile doesn’t seem a great fit for a perennial swing state.
Ever since the primary, Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, has far outpaced his Republican challenger — despite a midterm environment that generally benefits the GOP.
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Still, Shapiro’s cash advantage and Mastriano’s controversies are, in today’s hyperpartisan era, not enough to guarantee Pennsylvania will again be the bellwether state that cuts against the national current. Though Mastriano has had trouble raising money and is running a shoestring campaign, he didn’t need much campaign funding to win his primary. Strong Republican turnout or a sizable polling error could make this race competitive. Like Trump in 2020, Mastriano may enjoy more support among precisely the voters who are less likely to take polls. If this race is close, or if Mastriano manages to win, the Democrats are in for a long night — and the U.S. will see an election denier running one of the largest swing states in the country.