In A Handful Of States, Black Voters Could Be Key To Democratic Victories
Since 2000, the growth in Atlanta’s Black voting-age population has been close to four times as fast as the growth of its white voting-age population, changing the demographics of the most heavily populated metro area in an increasingly purple state.
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It’s long been said that Black voters are the backbone of the Democratic Party. If you need evidence for this, recall what happened two years ago, in 2020, when Joe Biden’s once-floundering presidential aspirations were resuscitated by Black voters in the South, particularly those living in South Carolina and Georgia.
In an especially tight midterm year, when Democrats are once again on the defensive, many candidates are hoping to lean on Black voters to help clinch electoral victories. Take Georgia, for example, where the marquee races for Senate and governor could come down to how many Black voting-age Georgians cast their ballots. This is a reality that’s been acknowledged by both Stacey Abrams, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate challenging Gov. Brian Kemp, and Sen. Raphael Warnock, who’s a slight underdog against Republican Herschel Walker. (My colleague Elena Mejía and I did a deep dive on how Black voters have transformed Georgia’s electorate, which you can read here.)
Georgia is perhaps the most obvious example of where Black support will be key to Democratic victories, since the state’s electorate is so ideologically calcified by race and geography. There’s also the fact that the demographics of the Peach State have changed drastically in the past two decades — thanks to an inflow of new Black residents. But Georgia isn’t the only state where Black voters will prove crucial. In Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin too, lower Black turnout could mean Democratic losses up and down the ballot.
In Pennsylvania, for instance, both Senate candidates — Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Republican Mehmet Oz, the celebrity doctor — are ramping up their appeals to Black voters through ads specifically targeted toward this bloc. Elsewhere on the ballot, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Josh Shapiro has also made attempts to charm Black voters in the state (he’s reportedly done outreach in predominantly Black churches.) Meanwhile, in North Carolina and Wisconsin, Black U.S. Senate candidates, Democrats Cheri Beasley and Mandela Barnes, respectively, might be counting on Black voters to help put them over the finish line in their competitive races.
Collectively, it’s likely that Black voters’ political clout this election cycle will be felt most heavily in the South. But it’s not clear whether Democrats are actually energizing Black voters in the way they want to. According to a Politico/Morning Consult survey fielded Sept. 30-Oct. 2, just 35 percent of registered Black voters described themselves as “extremely enthusiastic” about voting in this year’s midterm elections. (By comparison, 38 percent of white voters and 35 percent of Hispanic voters said the same.)
On top of that, a spate of restrictive new voting laws could curtail Black voters’s political influence. Still, we’ll be keeping an eye on whether this crucial Democratic voting bloc is able to make these races more competitive — or contribute to outright wins in many of the states we’re watching.