How The Supreme Court Might Sway Votes
The Supreme Court’s conservative majority isn’t on the ballot this November. Except … for some voters, it kind of is.
In the months after the high court overturned Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision that established a constitutional right to abortion, the Pew Research Center found that approval of the Supreme Court had plummeted to a historic low, fueled by a gaping 45-percentage-point favorability gap between Democrats and Republicans. The poll, conducted in August, found that only 28 percent of Democrats had a favorable view of the court — down 18 points since January and roughly 40 points since August 2020.
As abortion has receded from the headlines, perspectives on the court may have gotten a little less negative. Recent polling from The Economist/YouGov suggests that Democrats’ views of the justices have since recovered slightly, although they are still much more negative than they were earlier this year, before a draft of the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe was leaked in May. But other polls suggest that Americans increasingly believe that the court is out of step with mainstream public opinion. A Gallup poll conducted in late September, for example, found that 42 percent of Americans said the court is too conservative — a new high for that response. By contrast, only 18 percent of Americans said the court is too liberal.
So some voters may be responding to those perceptions of the Supreme Court when they go to the ballot box today — particularly voters who are prioritizing abortion access. But disgruntled Americans can’t vote the justices out of office. And court-reform efforts, like adding more justices to the court to balance out the current conservative majority, were dead in the water even when Democrats controlled the White House and both houses of Congress — which likely won’t be the case in a few months. Historically polarized views of the justices aren’t good for the court’s legitimacy, but that might not be enough to stop the conservatives from issuing further unpopular opinions.