_Election results can go through wild swings because of the way mail-in ballots are counted in some states_
GEORGE FREY / AFP / GETTY IMAGES
In 2020, differences in how Democrats and Republicans cast their ballots led to a new phenomenon for those of us watching election results in real time: One party appeared to take a huge lead in a state early in the night (sometimes called a red or blue “mirage”), only for the other side to come roaring back and jump ahead once all ballots were counted (the blue or red “shift”).
Although conspiracy theorists seized on this as “evidence” that illegal votes were being added to the mix in order to throw the election to Joe Biden, there was nothing nefarious about this; it was simply a byproduct of the order in which certain states counted their votes.
States often report absentee or mail-in ballots separately from in-person Election Day votes. For years, that didn’t matter, because these two types of ballots generally voted the same way. But that changed in 2020, amid Democratic concerns about the safety of in-person voting and Republican concerns about the security of mail-in ballots. Suddenly, mail-in ballots were heavily Democratic and Election Day votes were heavily Republican. So in many states that counted Election Day votes first and absentee ballots second, Republicans took a huge early lead only for those votes to be overtaken by Democrats later. And in states that counted absentee ballots first and Election Day votes second, it was often Republicans who reversed an early Democratic lead.
We’re expecting this phenomenon to recur in at least a few states here in 2022, which means you should be extra careful about jumping to conclusions based on early returns tonight. For example, in Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the very first results to report will be early or absentee votes, so they will probably appear extremely strong for Democrats. Then, Election Day results will come in over the course of the evening, making things look too good to be true for Republicans. Finally, over the course of the next few days, the remaining mail-in ballots will be counted, likely shifting things back toward Democrats — and the true, final result.