Here’s How Candidates Who Attended The Jan. 6 Rally Are Faring In Their Races
J.R. Majewski, a candidate for Ohio’s 9th District, is one of almost a dozen Republicans who attended the rally at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
DUSTIN FRANZ / BLOOMBERG / GETTY IMAGES
This election, we’ve been tracking candidates who have denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election. But among those candidates, there is a small subset who so bought into then-President Donald Trump’s false claims of a stolen election that they attended his Jan. 6, 2021, rally that preceded the attack on the U.S. Capitol. There are at least 11 such candidates running for House, Senate or governor. Of those, eight are unlikely to win — they’re running in districts where FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast projects them to have a less than 5-in-100 chance of winning. That includes Doug Mastriano, the Republican candidate for governor in Pennsylvania. Mastriano was heavily involved in the “Stop the Steal” movement and was in the crowd at Jan. 6, though he says he did not enter the Capitol. The forecast gives Mastriano a 3-in-100 chance of winning.
Three other candidates who were at Jan. 6 have better odds of winning. George Santos, the Republican candidate for New York’s 3rd Congressional District, has said he was “at the Ellipse,” referring to the location where Trump gave his speech on Jan. 6, though Santos has avoided saying whether he took part in the march to the Capitol. Santos is facing Democrat Robert Zimmerman, and our forecast gives the Republican a 32-in-100 chance of winning. J.R. Majewski, the GOP candidate for Ohio’s 9th District, faces somewhat similar odds. Majewski attended the rally on Jan. 6, though he says he did not cross any police barriers. The forecast gives Majewski a 22-in-100 chance of winning. And at least one Jan. 6 attendee is likely to win their race: Derrick Van Orden, who is running in Wisconsin’s 3rd District. Van Orden said he was in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6 “for meetings and to stand for the integrity of our electoral system,” and that he stood on the perimeter of the rally. The forecast gives Van Orden an 85-in-100 chance of winning this red-leaning district.
Most Jan. 6 attendees are forecasted to lose
Final forecast odds for the Republican House, Senate and gubernatorial candidates who attended the Jan. 6, 2021, rally that preceded the attack on the U.S. Capitol
| Candidate | Race | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Van Orden | WI-03 | 85% |
| George A.D. Santos | NY-03 | 32 |
| J.R. Majewski | OH-09 | 22 |
| Sandy Smith | NC-01 | 4 |
| Douglas V. Mastriano | PA Gov. | 3 |
| Elizabeth L. Joy | NY-20 | 1 |
| Jo Rae Perkins | OR Sen. | <1 |
| Jeff Zink | AZ-03 | <1 |
| Tina Forte | NY-14 | <1 |
| Leon Benjamin Sr. | VA-04 | <1 |
| Dan Cox | MD Gov. | <1 |
Since this group represents some of the most extreme election-denying candidates running in the midterms, I’ll be watching closely to see if any of them prevail.