FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Republican Mark Finchem denies the legitimacy of the 2020 election, without evidence, and if he wins his race for secretary of state, he will become Arizona’s top election official.

JOSHUA LOTT / THE WASHINGTON POST / GETTY IMAGES

You’re probably paying the closest attention to Senate, House and gubernatorial races today, but don’t forget about down-ballot races like attorney general and secretary of state. Both of these posts have gained special significance in the current climate: Attorneys general, in addition to having the power to sue the federal government over policies they don’t like, can also sometimes decide whether to enforce laws in their states — like, for example, bans on abortion. And secretaries of state are usually the top election official in their state, and they have the power to make voting easier — or harder.

Seven Republicans who have denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election are also running for secretary of state, raising fears that they could attempt to overturn the 2024 election if it doesn’t go their way. One of them, Wyoming’s Chuck Gray, is almost certain to win, and two more are in toss-up races: Mark Finchem in Arizona and Jim Marchant in Nevada. Democrats are favored to beat Kristina Karamo in Michigan, Kim Crockett in Minnesota and Audrey Trujillo in New Mexico, but it’s possible that these three will win too. (The last election denier, H. Brooke Paige in Vermont, is virtually guaranteed to lose.)

Other competitive races include Arizona and Wisconsin attorney general, which could decide the fate of abortion in their respective states. For other attorney general and secretary of state races to watch, read my full article on the topic from a couple weeks ago.


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