How Election Week 2022 Went Down

Former President Donald Trump likes to boast about the power of his endorsement, and when you look at the numbers, they certainly seem impressive. During the primaries, Trump endorsed 190 Republican candidates in Senate, House and gubernatorial races, according to data from FiveThirtyEight. Of those 190, 181 advanced to the general election, for a success rate of 95 percent. But as we’ve previously reported, the numbers alone obscure the fact that Trump has a tendency to make endorsements late in the race, after a front-runner is already apparent, as well as in races where there was no opposition.

There are very few instances of Trump endorsing against incumbents or in crowded primary fields. This cycle, he only endorsed 10 nonincumbents who were running against incumbents, six of whom won or advanced to the general election.

Because of Trump’s record padding, many of his endorsees are heading into the election with excellent odds. Take Rep. Carol Miller, the incumbent Republican candidate for West Virginia’s 1st District, who Trump endorsed in the primary. Our forecast gives her a better than 99-in-100 chance of winning, but Trump can hardly take credit for her sunny forecast. When you endorse the Republican incumbent in a deep-red district, you’re probably picking the winner.

There are a handful of races where Trump’s choice is facing steeper odds, including among some of the races where the Trump-backed candidate won out over the establishment pick. Take Pennsylvania Senate candidate Doug Mastriano, who got Trump’s endorsement shortly before the GOP primary and won the party nomination over Lou Barletta, a former member of congress and the state GOP’s pick for nominee. But Mastriano has trailed Democrat candidate and state Attorney General Josh Shapiro in our forecast, and currently has just 3-in-100 odds of winning the race. Kari Lake, the Trump-backed Republican candidate for governor in Arizona, also won out over an establishment candidate in the primary, and while she’s faring better than Mastriano, it will be a close race — our forecast gives Lake a 68-in-100 chance of winning. However, Harriet Hageman, the Trump-backed candidate who defeated Rep. Liz Cheney (a Trump foe of late) for the GOP nomination in Wyoming, is very likely to win the seat. Our forecast gives Hageman better than a 99-in-100 shot at winning.

So, while Trump’s topline endorsement record will continue to look boast-worthy — and his continued influence on the Republican party is undeniable — a closer look at some of his riskier calls show it’s a bit more of a mixed bag, and he isn’t always the kingmaker he claims.