Asian Americans Might Lean Blue Overall, But That’s Not The Whole Story
Asian Americans in Congress have primarily run under the banner of the Democratic Party, such as Jay Chen in California, but a little more than a third of those running for office this year are Republicans — including Chen’s opponent, Rep. Michelle Steel.
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Asian Americans have been the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group in the U.S. this century. Despite being a group that includes a huge range of ethnic identities with different political leanings, Asian Americans are still generally considered a Democratic voting bloc. But though a majority of Asian Americans voted for Democrats in 2020 and have told pollsters they will again in 2022 — that topline figure elides the diversity of opinions, policy preferences and concerns within this demographic.
These political leanings have shifted over time. According to voter data from 2020, Republicans made strong inroads with Asian Americans in districts with high-majority Asian populations. That cycle, Reps. Young Kim and Michelle Steel became two of the three first congresswomen of Korean descent. Kim and Young hail from Orange County, California, and represent districts with some of the largest shares of Asian voters. (Both representatives took back seats from 2018 “blue wave” freshmen.)
This year, they’re the most viable Asian American Republican contenders for Congress, joined by Allan Fung vying for Rhode Island’s 2nd district seat in a tight race. There are seven other Asian American Republicans seeking congressional office, but each has less than a 1-in-100 chance of winning.
Steel’s race in California’s newly redrawn 45th District, in particular, has garnered national attention. She is facing Jay Chen, a Navy veteran and entrepreneur, in what has devolved into a bitter battle marked by allegations of inter-Asian discrimination. Most recently, posters describing Chen as “China’s Choice” were found plastered around local areas, presumably to sour his image among the local sizable Vietnamese community by exploiting homeland geopolitical views. That followed general attempts by Steel to also paint Chen, a Taiwanese American, as a puppet of China. On the flip side, Chen came under fire some months ago for mocking Steel’s accent when speaking English, which set off a volley of op-eds and statements between the two. Our final forecast shows that Steel has an 81 percent chance of winning.
It’s unlikely this election will send many new Asian American members to Congress. Twenty-seven Asian Americans are running for House this year. Seventeen are Democrats, 12 of whom are running in solidly or likely blue districts and stand at least an 85-in-100 chance of winning, according to our forecast; of the 12, only two are non-incumbents: Jill Tokuda in Hawaii’s 2nd District and Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13 District. Only one Asian American is up for reelection in the Senate — Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, one of the eight Asian Americans to ever have served in the Senate — and her prospects look good.
It’s been more than 60 years since the first voting Asian American representative, Dalip Singh Saund, was first elected, and 66 Asian Americans have subsequently followed in his footsteps. A majority have indeed been Democrats, but certainly not all. And races like in California’s 45th suggest that Democrats overall would bode well by not taking Asian American votes for granted.