Open Seat Blues For Democrats
Democrats were always going to face serious headwinds in the House of Representatives. Historically, the president’s party suffers steep losses in the House during the midterms, and President Biden’s low approval rating isn’t doing them any favors.
But individual Democratic House members — the three dozen incumbents who are running for a different office, running in a different district or retiring from Congress entirely — have also made life more difficult for the party to maintain its majority. In particular, decisions by 18 Democrats have left the party scrambling in competitive districts. Given how other Democratic incumbents, like Michigan Reps. Elissa Slotkin and Dan Kildee, or Pennsylvania Reps. Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild, are still running strong in ostensibly tough districts, it’s not unreasonable to believe many of them could be doing just as well. And with Republicans needing to flip just five seats to win back the majority, that could be all the difference.
The higher-office seekers
A number of Democrats’ stronger House incumbents chose to run for higher office rather than hold down their swing seats. In Florida’s 13th, Charlie Crist is vacating his St. Petersburg-area seat to run for governor. Republicans redrew the seat to be slightly more favorable to them, and GOP nominee Anna Paulina Luna looks poised to flip the seat. In New York’s 3rd District, Tom Suozzi ran a quixotic (if unsuccessful) campaign for governor, and now his Long Island district is a long-shot pickup opportunity for Republicans. And in New York’s 19th District, Antonio Delgado left Congress to run as Gov. Kathy Hochul’s lieutenant governor. While Democrats did hold onto the 19th in a summer special election, now-Rep. Pat Ryan is running in the 18th District this fall (he’s favored), leaving the 19th as an open seat that leans slightly toward the Democrat.
In Pennsylvania’s 17th District, Conor Lamb ran unsuccessfully for his party’s Senate nomination. That race now slightly favors the Democrats. And in Ohio, Tim Ryan is giving Democrats a shot at flipping the state’s Senate seat, but in the process is leaving his heavily redrawn 13th District up for grabs.
The retirees
Republicans could flip Rhode Island’s deep-blue 2nd District after Jim Langevin decided not to seek reelection. In Florida’s 7th, Stephanie Murphy’s decision to bow out rather than try to hold onto a redrawn district gives the GOP a clear pickup. In Wisconsin’s 3rd, Ron Kind held onto his seat even as it zoomed rightward, and his retirement paves the way for a GOP flip. In Illinois’ 17th, Cheri Bustos is retiring, and even though her district was redrawn to be more favorable to Democrats, the Democrat is only slightly favored. Ann Kirkpatrick’s decision to retire from Arizona’s 6th gives the GOP a probable flip. Even in Pennsylvania’s 12th, Oregon’s 4th, North Carolina’s 1st and New York’s 4th districts, Democratic retirements have made what should be comfortable holds potentially dicier propositions for Democrats.
The district-hoppers
Democrats are facing potential wipeout in South Texas. Rep. Filemon Vela resigned earlier this year, triggering a special election in the 34th District that a Republican, Mayra Flores, won. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez decided to run in the 34th rather than the 15th District he currently represents, which is now a dead heat race. And in the 34th District race between Flores and Gonzalez, the Democrat, despite holding a slight edge, is at a disadvantage because it’s almost all new territory to him. It’s not hard to envision a different scenario where Vela and Gonzalez both ran for reelection in their own districts and gave Democrats a solid shot at holding both seats; instead, Democrats could now lose both.
In Michigan, Rep. Andy Levin’s decision to run in the 11th District, where his home is, rather than the 10th District, where much of his old seat is, gave Republicans an opportunity in the 10th. Given how well other Democratic incumbents are doing in Michigan, Levin likely would have been highly competitive in the new 10th District — but instead he lost the Democratic primary for the 11th.
And in New York’s 17th, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Sean Patrick Maloney is in the fight of his life after hopping districts from the 18th and pushing out incumbent Rep. Mondaire Jones (who elected to run in a crowded primary for the redrawn 10th District, and lost). Maloney would have had a tough fight in the 18th too, but he would have saved the Democratic Party a ton of bad press, and wouldn’t have had to spend money on a competitive primary, had he stuck it out in the 18th.