How Election Week 2022 Went Down

Four years ago, the midterm elections swept in what was then the most diverse class of Congress freshmen in American history, thanks in large part to a powerful blue wave that sent a record number of women to Washington, D.C. But in the years since, several Democratic House members first elected in 2018 have found themselves in jeopardy.

Of the 65 Democrats first elected in the 2018 midterm elections, 45 are on the ballot again this year. (The three senators elected in 2018 are not yet up for reelection, and an additional 12 representatives either lost their seats in 2020 or their primaries this year. The remaining resigned, did not seek reelection or switched parties. Max Rose, who lost his seat in 2020 but is running to take it back this election, is not included below.) Forty of them are favored to hold onto their seats.

One of the vulnerable 2018 blue wavers we’re watching tonight is Rep. Cindy Axne, running for reelection in Iowa’s 3rd District. She’s up against state Rep. Zach Nunn, who currently has a small upper hand with a 58-in-100 chance. The district covers Des Moines and much of its surrounding metropolitan area, in addition to rural areas across the state’s southwest region. While Axne won reelection last cycle, Iowa’s 3rd was one of the country’s seven “crossover” districts that voted for Trump but also sent a Democrat to the House. In other words, it was never expected to be a slam dunk for Democrats.

Blue wave vulnerability is a phenomenon also showing up on the coasts, and the nation’s seventh-wealthiest district shows us that it doesn’t take much for the pendulum to possibly swing: Redistricting changed New Jersey’s competitive 7th District from a D+4 to an R+3 lean, and even a little nudge is enough to put incumbent Rep. Tom Malinowski at risk this year. The race will be a deja vu moment for voters, as Malinowski faces longtime Republican state legislator Thomas Kean Jr. in a rematch of 2020, which saw Malinowski clinch reelection by about 5,000 votes. Our forecast suggests things could shake out differently this year: Kean has a 72 percent chance of winning.

While the fates of those like Axne and Malinowski are still up in the air, some of the 2018 blue wave congressional newbies have already met defeat: Reps. T.J. Cox of California’s 21st District and Donna Shalala of Florida’s 27th lost in the 2020 general election after just one term in office. But not all ousted Congress members first elected in 2018 were beaten by a Republican opponent. Earlier this year, redistricting pit Rep. Mike Levin of Michigan against fellow incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens, who was not only also a Democrat but a 2018 blue wave freshman, as well. And sure, Stevens’s primary success was technically a win for 2018 blue wavers in isolation, but one seat was still lost in aggregate.

And ultimately, in the zero-sum game of two-party politics, a tapering blue wave starts to imply that the opposite is en route.