How Election Week 2022 Went Down

In U.S. politics, high gas prices are universally understood as a potential political hazard. Research has found that higher prices at the pump tend to depress the sitting president’s approval ratings, and elected officials frequently take measures to bring down the cost of filling up. This year was no different in that regard, as Biden has taken measures to bring down the cost of oil, including by releasing oil reserves and calling on oil companies to ease the burden.

Over the summer, gas peaked at around $5 a gallon, and though prices have fallen since, they remain about 55 cents higher than they were this time last year. But will the higher gas prices we saw this year really doom Biden and, by extension, Democrats in this year’s midterms?

In short, it is true that gas prices tend to drag down presidential approval ratings — which in turn matter for midterm elections. In my earlier reporting, I spoke to experts who suggested the full story is a bit more complicated, as it often depends on who or what voters hold responsible.

A big reason for higher gas prices this year, of course, was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it’s possible that voters may see that as the culprit more than the party that’s controlling all three branches of government. But the polling we do have suggests that Americans aren’t happy over high gas prices — and they blame Biden. A YouGov poll from last week found that 84 percent of Americans said the price of gas was at least “somewhat important” to them, and 76 percent thought that the president has “a little” or “a lot” of power over the price of gas. And an August analysis from the left-leaning firm Data for Progress found that gas prices were highly correlated with Biden’s approval rating, suggesting the cost of fuel really does rule everything around us.

But Americans seem to have also managed to hold more than one factor responsible: An April poll from Ipsos/ABC News found that while 71 percent of Americans held Russian President Vladimir Putin responsible for the increase in gas prices, 51 percent of Americans also held Biden responsible. And gas prices have fallen in recent weeks and months, which has correlated with higher consumer sentiment and a greater share of Americans saying the nation is on the right track. But it’s unclear whether that’ll directly help Democrats: A Morning Consult poll from July, when gas prices were first starting to tumble in part due to Biden administration policies, found that almost 3 in 5 registered voters instead attributed the drop to fears over a recession.

All of that suggests, then, that Americans aren’t really tolerating higher gas prices as a result of the war in Ukraine or an uncertain global economy, even if they do have the capacity to hold more than one factor accountable. The one thing that appears to be clear is that Democrats and Biden are going to take a hit because of higher gas prices — we just don’t know how much.