How Election Week 2022 Went Down

In 2020, one of the major political storylines was that Latino voters — a group that typically leans Democratic — moved further right, particularly in states like Texas, Florida and Arizona. And in this year’s midterm elections, it’s possible that we’ll see more of the same shifts.

I know, I know: Former President Donald Trump — who was largely credited for the rightward lurch — isn’t on the ballot. And don’t be fooled: A majority of Latino voters still support the Democratic Party; moreover, according to a September New York Times/Siena College poll, registered Latino voters tend to side with Democrats over Republicans on issues like climate and energy, immigration and gun policy.

Still, with inflation being a top voting issue for Latino voters, it’s entirely possible that Republicans can make further inroads with this bloc this year, since some polls suggest that voters overall tend to trust the GOP on this issue more than they do Democrats. (That New York Times/Siena College survey showed that Latino voters were close to split about which party they agreed with more on economic issues.) Plus, my previous reporting suggests that many Latinos are more socially conservative — which could imperil their standing with Democrats.

So what should we expect from Latino voters this year? The midterms will serve as a test of Republican gains — and Democratic losses — among this key group, and both parties are doubling down on their efforts to appeal to this key voting bloc, but we can’t paint Latinos with a broad brush. I asked five Latino voters what’s top of mind for them heading into November for my Voices of Color column, which you can read here.

Still, in regions like South Texas and states like Nevada and Arizona — places with highly competitive contests for U.S. Senate, governor and/or congressional districts — it’s likely that Latino voters will be key in helping decide many of these races. And as my colleague Geoffrey Skelley wrote in late September and I reported last month, Democrats could be in a weaker position in these areas among Latino voters this year than they were two years ago. Why? In Texas, new redistricting lines made at least one southern seat more favorable to the GOP. And in Nevada and Arizona, similar economic concerns that benefitted Trump in 2020 still seem to be in play.

That said, it’s hard to deduce with absolute certainty what to expect from Latino voters this year. There could also be a tension between economic concerns and anxieties about abortion access following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, since a majority of Latino voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Like I said earlier, Latino voters — like all voters — hold different, often competing, priorities. So while the evidence we have now suggests that this bloc could move further right, we’ll hold off on making definitive conclusions until we see some election results.