Why The Economy Might Matter Less Than You Think
When it comes to deciding elections, the conventional wisdom has long suggested that “it’s the economy, stupid” — especially this year. For example, Republicans have spent $69 million since Labor Day attacking Democrats and Biden for their handling of inflation and the economy, and polling suggests those ads are paying off — with voters tending to trust the GOP more on handling the economy.
But what if that wasn’t the whole story? As a recent article in Bloomberg pointed out, the economy isn’t always the deciding factor in U.S. elections. And a recent analysis from John T. Woolley for the American Presidency Project found that, despite the popular narrative, neither inflation nor job growth was strongly correlated with midterm gains or losses in 19 midterm elections from 1946 to 2018. That’s true even though many of those elections happened during periods of deep economic malaise.
But today’s economic uncertainty could still affect the outcome of these midterms. As I’ve shown in my own reporting, Americans who have lived through previous periods of high inflation are likely to react more strongly to today’s inflation than those who didn’t, and the overall uncertainty wrought by COVID-19 has cooled off consumer sentiment. But even if Democrats suffer sharp losses on Tuesday night, you should be wary of analyses that chalk it all up to the state of the economy. That same American Presidency Project noted that, between 1934 and 2018, the most consistent and strong predictors of midterm performance are the incumbent president’s approval rating and the number of seats up for election that are controlled by the president’s party.
Maybe the biggest lesson, then, is that “it’s the president’s party in a midterm election, stupid.”