How Election Week 2022 Went Down

Violent crime in the U.S. increased astronomically between the late 1960s and early 1990s. Then, it turned around and did the opposite, plummeting 35 percent between 1990 and 2000. It continued a downward trend until 2014, when it rose a little. From 2016 through the end of 2020, the violent crime rate stagnated, fluctuating in the vicinity of 400 crimes per 100,000 people.

At every step in this history, politicians have promised they know the one weird trick that will reduce crime — and taken credit for making the streets safer when the crime rate goes down. That message has been a major factor in this midterm election. Twenty-two percent of all Republican ad spending in September — nearly $40 million — went toward ads focusing on rising crime. And polls suggest voters are listening. In a Politico/Morning Consult poll from mid-October, 64 percent of voters said the issue of crime would play a major role in which candidates they chose this year.

But the researchers who have been studying crime, its causes and its fluctuations for decades say no politician has any idea why crime rises or falls. In fact, no one knows. Even scientists have spent whole careers arguing about the possible causes of the rise in the ’60s and decline in the ’90s. That doesn’t mean the situation is hopeless for people who live in high-crime areas, however; it’s more of a reminder to take political claims about crime with a grain of salt. That’s especially pertinent when the claims attribute crime to just a single cause (like the unfulfilled calls to “defund the police”) or offer a single solution (like getting “tough on crime”).