What’s On Voters’ Minds Matters
As FiveThirtyEight has found in our ongoing surveys with Ipsos, “inflation or increasing costs” remains a top issue for voters in 2022, while the importance of other issues has ebbed and flowed. But that ebb and flow could be important where races are tight, because the issue environment in a particular state or district can influence what voters are thinking about when they cast their ballot. There are some issues that favor Democrats, while other issues favor Republicans.
For instance, an issue environment where abortion is top of mind for voters should favor Democrats, because more Americans are aligned with the Democratic Party’s position on abortion than with the Republican Party’s. This is also why Democrats running for office have been trying to keep this issue in the news cycle with their political advertising. But despite an initial surge in attention to this issue, our polling with Ipsos found that abortion has become less salient over the past few months — even among younger women, who were among the likeliest to prioritize abortion in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning the constitutional right to abortion.
Still, in states where the abortion issue is more salient, Democrats could have an advantage. That might be the case in states where abortion is literally on the ballot such as California, Montana, Vermont, Kentucky and Michigan. Most of these states aren’t very swingy, but Michigan’s incumbent governor, Gretchen Whitmer, is likely benefiting from its salience in her state — especially because Whitmer has made abortion rights a signature issue over the past few years.
The issue environment can also influence support for male or female candidates. All else equal, female candidates are viewed as better able to handle education and health care, while men are viewed as better able to handle national security issues and foreign affairs. But according to our surveys with Ipsos, these issues aren’t registering as priorities this election. It’s inflation, crime and political extremism that are consistently mentioned, which likely favor Republicans (and men).