Trifectas
With Washington, D.C., likely to emerge from these midterms under divided government, state-level elections are arguably the most important races on the ballot in 2022. In practical terms, parties are trying to take — or keep — full control of 18 state governments today, defined as controlling both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship (or big enough majorities in the legislature that they can override the governor’s veto). If they succeed, they will have free rein to pass major legislation on issues from abortion to voting rights to gun control to education.
In Maine, Nevada and Oregon, Democrats control the governorship and both chambers of the legislature, but Republicans could flip all three. Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are currently under divided government, but the state Senate, state House and governor’s office could all change hands as well, giving either party full control. Republicans could take full control of Alaska by flipping the state House and of Wisconsin by winning the governorship. Republicans could also take full control of North Carolina by gaining veto-proof majorities in both chambers of the legislature, and Democrats could do the same with Vermont.
Republicans could also break up Democrats’ monopoly on power in New Mexico by winning the governor’s mansion and in Colorado by flipping either the state Senate or state House. But Democrats could also end Republican rule in Arizona and Kansas by making gains in the state legislature; in New Hampshire by flipping the state House; and in Florida, Georgia and Texas by defeating Republican governors.
For more detail on who’s favored in each of these races, check out my article from the other day.