The Number Of Female Governors Could Set A Record
This year could see the highest number of female governors in history. One of the female governors will be from Arizona, where Democrat Katie Hobbs, pictured, is facing off against Republican Kari Lake.
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This year’s elections could result in a record number of female governors. Up until now, only nine women have served as governor simultaneously — but the results of today’s races could increase that number substantially. As we wrote last month, there are 25 women affiliated with a major party running for governor, and 12 of them have a 50-in-100 or greater chance of winning their race, according to our final Deluxe forecast numbers.
Women could break records in governors’ races this year
Forecast odds for female candidates in 2022 gubernatorial races, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast as of Nov. 8, 2022, at 12 a.m. Eastern
| Candidate | State | Party | Incumb.? | female opponent? | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kay Ivey | Ala. | R | ✓ | ✓ | >99% |
| Maura Healey | Mass. | D | >99 | ||
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | Ark. | R | >99 | ||
| Kristi Noem | S.D. | R | ✓ | >99 | |
| Kim Reynolds | Iowa | R | ✓ | ✓ | >99 |
| Kathy C. Hochul | N.Y. | D | ✓ | 95 | |
| Janet T. Mills | Maine | D | ✓ | 88 | |
| Gretchen Whitmer | Mich. | D | ✓ | ✓ | 85 |
| Michelle Lujan Grisham | N.M. | D | ✓ | 84 | |
| Kari Lake | Ariz. | R | ✓ | 68 | |
| Tina Kotek | Ore. | D | ✓ | 63 | |
| Laura Kelly | Kan. | D | ✓ | 62 | |
| Christine Drazan | Ore. | R | ✓ | 37 | |
| Katie Hobbs | Ariz. | D | ✓ | 32 | |
| Tudor M. Dixon | Mich. | R | ✓ | 15 | |
| Joy Hofmeister | Okla. | D | 8 | ||
| Stacey Abrams | Ga. | D | 6 | ||
| Carol Blood | Neb. | D | 2 | ||
| Ashley Kalus | R.I. | R | 2 | ||
| Heidi Ganahl | Colo. | R | <1 | ||
| Deidre DeJear | Iowa | D | ✓ | <1 | |
| Brenda Siegel | Vt. | D | <1 | ||
| Nan Whaley | Ohio | D | <1 | ||
| Yolanda Rochelle Flowers | Ala. | D | ✓ | <1 | |
| Theresa A. Livingston | Wyo. | D | <1 |
Two candidates — Maura Healey of Massachusetts and Kathy Hochul of New York — are both on track to become the first woman elected to serve as governor of their states. And in some close races, all major candidates are female, ensuring a woman will wind up winning. That includes the contest for Arizona governor — where the Republican, Kari Lake, is currently slightly favored against Democrat Katie Hobbs — and the race for Oregon governor, which slightly favors Tina Kotek in a race against Christine Drazan, another female candidate.
An increase in the number of women serving as governor at once is a big deal because governor’s mansions have historically been hard for women to win. That’s due to a number of factors — some unrelated to gender (like the fact that there simply aren’t many governorships to run for), but others shaped by the gender stereotypes associated with different kinds of political roles. Studies have found that voters have historically been more apt to elect women to be part of a group, like a legislature, rather than an executive-level position, like governor. But recently, some research has indicated that voters’ prejudices against women serving in executive-level offices have started to wane, especially among Democrats, which could help explain why so many women are poised to win governor’s races this year.