New Districts
The House map is brand new, following the decennial redistricting process. Some state maps didn’t change much, while others saw sizable alterations thanks to partisan mapmaking goals and gains or losses in reapportionment. As a result, some districts bear only a passing resemblance to those on the old maps. Others could even be described as “new” because they have no obvious predecessor.
Let’s start with the districts added to states that gained a seat due to redistricting. The most competitive new district looks to be the slightly Democratic-leaning seat in Oregon’s 6th District, which surrounds the state capital of Salem. By comparison, Colorado’s new 8th District, north of Denver, looks like a better bet for Republicans. While it gained just one seat, Montana, in a sense, has two new districts, as redistricting split its old at-large seat in half. The western, open 1st District favors the GOP, while Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale is seeking reelection in the eastern and safely red 2nd District. Meanwhile, North Carolina’s new 14th District, in the Charlotte area, should go for Democrats this year. In Texas, the deep-blue 37th District, centered in Austin, is new in most respects. But Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett decided to run there instead of the solidly Democratic 35th District, which contains most of his old seat. Finally, in the Houston area, Republicans look set to capture the new, solidly red 38th District.
Determining whether a district is new isn’t quite as simple as looking at the newest, highest-numbered seat. Florida gained one seat in reapportionment, but the Republican-drawn map carved up a Black-opportunity district in North Florida, creating a new seat, the GOP-leaning 4th District, in the Jacksonville area. Other significant changes to the map and choices by incumbents about where to run left an open seat in the Tampa Bay area — the red-leaning 15th District — that could arguably be called new as well.
Elsewhere, drastically altered lines also created new seats — or arguably new ones — even if the district number already existed on the map. For instance, North Carolina’s 13th District, south of Raleigh, contains none of the old 13th; despite the new seat’s purple hue, Republicans look favored here. In Illinois, Democrats drew the new deep-blue, Hispanic-opportunity 3rd District, in Chicago. They also dramatically altered the boundaries of the 13th District, in south-central Illinois, and made it Democratic-leaning, leading Republican Rep. Rodney Davis to seek reelection elsewhere and lose his primary. And in Ohio, the new, purplish 13th District no longer includes parts of the Mahoning Valley, the home base of outgoing Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan (who is running for Senate). The GOP is favored to win the seat.