How Election Week 2022 Went Down

Good morning readers — it’s a bit after 7 a.m. and the FiveThirtyEight morning crew is back online! We’ll be bringing you new election updates as they come in this morning.

As of 3:15 a.m., when we hit the hay, five Senate races and five governors races do not yet have a projected winner. In addition, ABC News is projecting that Republicans have won at least 207 House seats and Democrats have won at least 188.

Senate

• In Georgia, Warnock leads Walker 49.1 percent to 48.8 percent. This race is very likely to require a Dec. 6 runoff.
• In Wisconsin, Johnson leads Barnes 51 percent to 49 percent. Based on what remains, the Republican will probably win this one.
• In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 56 percent to 41 percent. This race will tighten, though, as more ballots are counted in the coming days.
• In Nevada, Cortez Masto leads Laxalt 50 percent to 47 percent. This race could go either way.
• In the ranked-choice election in Alaska, Tshibaka has 47 percent of first-place votes, Murkowski has 41 percent, Chesbro has 9 percent, and Kelley has 3 percent. Remember that if no one gets a majority of first-place votes, this race will be decided by voters’ second- and third-choice votes on Nov. 23.

Governor

• In Arizona, Hobbs leads Lake 55 percent to 45 percent. This race, too, will tighten and likely take days to resolve.
• In Kansas, Kelly leads Schmidt 49 percent to 48 percent. There’s not too much left to report, so I’d rather be Kelly here.
• In Nevada, Sisolak leads Lombardo 49 percent to 48 percent. It’s hard to say who, if anyone, has an advantage here.
• In Oregon, Kotek leads Drazan 46 percent to 45 percent, with Johnson at 9 percent. This one could also go either way.

In Alaska, Dunleavy has 54 percent of first-place votes, Gara has 22 percent, Walker has 20 percent, and Pierce has 5 percent. It’s uncertain whether Dunleavy will finish above 50 percent (and thus win without the need for ranked-choice tabulations), but even if he doesn’t, he’ll likely still take this one on Nov. 23.

Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, one of Trump’s most outspoken allies and proponent of the baseless theory that the 2020 election was stolen, currently trails Democrat Adam Frisch, 51 percent to 49 percent with 86 percent of the expected vote counted. This would qualify as a major upset: The Deluxe version of our forecast gave Frisch just a 3-in-100 chance of unseating Boebert. But the outstanding ballots are expected to favor Boebert, so we have a long way to go before this one is called.