How Election Week 2022 Went Down

ABC News is now projecting that Democrat Val Hoyle will win election over Republican Alek Skarlatos in Oregon’s 4th District. Hoyle, the state’s commissioner of Bureau of Labor and Industries, currently leads 52 to 42 percent with 84 percent of the expected vote reporting in this blue-leaning district that was redrawn to become more Democratic-friendly during the last round of redistricting. Skarlatos faced an uphill battle, as our forecast saw the former Army National Guard soldier with just a 12-in-100 of flipping this seat, previously held by retiring Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio.

While my money is still on Republicans to win the House, it could come down to just a few seats, which means we could be waiting days for a formal projection. In that case, we’ll be watching slow-counting states like California to tell us who won. So let’s get a head start on that now, shall we?

• With 30 percent of the estimated vote in, Democratic Rep. Josh Harder is currently leading Republican Tom Patti 61 percent to 39 percent in the 9th District.
• With 38 percent of the estimated vote in, Democrat Adam Gray is leading Republican John Duarte 51 percent to 49 percent in the 13th District.
• With 26 percent of the estimated vote in, Republican Rep. David Valadao (who, notably, voted to impeach Trump) is winning 52 percent to 48 percent in the 22nd District.
• With 33 percent of the estimated vote in, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia is winning 52 percent to 48 percent in the 27th District.
• With 44 percent of the estimated vote in, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel is winning 53 percent to 47 percent in the 45th District.
• With 45 percent of the estimated vote in, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is winning 56 percent to 44 percent in the 47th District.
• With 45 percent of the estimated vote in, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin is winning 56 percent to 44 percent in the 49th District.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s COO has essentially said what we are all thinking, which is that Georgia’s Senate race is headed for a runoff.